FLASH NEWS
FLASH NEWS
Monday, September 28, 2020

US election 2020 polls: Who is ahead – Trump or Biden?

US election 2020 polls: Who is ahead - Trump or Biden?
0 0
Read Time:12 Minute, 43 Second

Polls: Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.

The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama’s vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.

As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.

We’ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the election.

Section divider

Biden leading national presidential polls

National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.

poll

Date
BIDEN
TRUMP
Sep 125143
Sep 115143
Sep 105143
Sep 105143
Sep 095143
Sep 085143
Sep 085143
Sep 085143
Sep 085143
Sep 085143
Sep 085143
Sep 0749.542
Sep 0649.542
Sep 0649.542
Sep 0550.542.5
Sep 0450.542
Sep 0450.542
Sep 0350.542
Sep 0250.542.5
Sep 0250.542.5
Sep 015042
Sep 015042
Sep 015042
Sep 015042
Sep 015042
Sep 015042
Aug 315042
Aug 315042
Aug 315042
Aug 315042
Aug 315042
Aug 305041
Aug 305041
Aug 2950.541.5
Aug 2850.542.5
Aug 2850.542.5
Aug 2750.542.5
Aug 265043
Aug 255042
Aug 255042
Aug 255042
Aug 245042
Aug 235042
Aug 225042
Aug 215042
Aug 205042
Aug 195042
Aug 185042
Aug 185042
Aug 185042
Aug 175042
Aug 165042
Aug 155042
Aug 155042
Aug 145041.5
Aug 145041.5
Aug 135041
Aug 125041.5
Aug 125041.5
Aug 115041.5
Aug 115041.5
Aug 115041.5
Aug 115041.5
Aug 1049.541
Aug 094941
Aug 084941
Aug 074941
Aug 0649.541
Aug 0549.541.5
Aug 045042
Aug 045042
Aug 035042
Aug 0249.541.5
Aug 0149.541.5
Jul 3149.541.5
Jul 3049.541.5
Jul 294941
Jul 284941
Jul 284941
Jul 284941
Jul 275041.5
Jul 265141
Jul 255141
Jul 245141
Jul 235141
Jul 225041
Jul 215041
Jul 215041
Jul 205040.5
Jul 195141
Jul 185141
Jul 175040.5
Jul 165040.5
Jul 155040.5
Jul 155040.5
Jul 145040
Jul 145040
Jul 1350.540
Jul 1250.540
Jul 1250.540
Jul 114940
Jul 104940
Jul 094940
Jul 084940
Jul 0749.540.5
Jul 0749.540.5
Jul 064941
Jul 054940
Jul 044940
Jul 034940
Jul 024940
Jul 0149.540.5
Jun 3049.540.5
Jun 3049.540.5
Jun 3049.540.5
Jun 295041
Jun 284941
Jun 2749.540
Jun 2649.540
Jun 255041
Jun 245041
Jun 2349.540
Jun 2349.540
Jun 225041
Jun 225041
Jun 215041
Jun 205041
Jun 195041
Jun 1850.541
Jun 175041
Jun 165041
Jun 165041
Jun 154941
Jun 1449.541.5
Jun 134941
Jun 124941
Jun 114941.5
Jun 104942
Jun 094942
Jun 084942
Jun 074942
Jun 064942
Jun 054942
Jun 0448.542
Jun 034942
Jun 034942
Jun 034942
Jun 024841
Jun 024841
Jun 014842
Jun 014842
May 314841.5
May 304842.5
May 294842.5
May 284842.5
May 274842
May 264842
May 254842
May 244842
May 234842.5
May 224842.5
May 214842.5
May 204842.5
May 194843
May 194843
May 184944
May 174944
May 1648.543.5
May 1548.543.5
May 144943
May 144943
May 134843
May 124743
May 1147.542.5
May 1047.542.5
May 094742
May 0847.542
May 0747.542
May 0647.542
May 054842
May 044842
May 034742
May 0247.541.5
May 014842
Apr 3047.541.5
Apr 294842
Apr 284842
Apr 284842
Apr 2748.542
Apr 2648.542
Apr 2548.542
Apr 244842
Apr 234842
Apr 224842
Apr 214842
Apr 204843
Apr 1948.542.5
Apr 1848.542.5
Apr 1748.542
Apr 1648.542
Apr 154842
Apr 144842
Apr 134842
Apr 1247.542
Apr 1147.542
Apr 1047.542
Apr 0947.542
Apr 084842
Apr 074842
Apr 074842
Apr 074842
Apr 064942
Apr 064942
Apr 064942
Apr 054842.5
Apr 044843
Apr 034843
Apr 024843
Apr 0148.544
Mar 314945
Mar 304945
Mar 294945
Mar 284945
Mar 274945
Mar 264945
Mar 254944
Mar 244943
Mar 244943
Mar 235044
Mar 225044
Mar 215242
Mar 205243
Mar 195243
Mar 185242
Mar 175242
Mar 165243
Mar 155243
Mar 145243
Mar 135243
Mar 125243
Mar 115143
Mar 105043
Mar 095142
Mar 085142
Mar 075043
Mar 064945
Mar 054945
Mar 044945
Mar 034945
Mar 024945
Mar 0149.545
Feb 295045
Feb 285044.5
Feb 275044
Feb 2649.544.5
Feb 255045
Feb 245045
Feb 235045
Feb 225044.5
Feb 215044
Feb 205044
Feb 195044
Feb 185044
Feb 175144
Feb 175144
Feb 165043.5
Feb 155043
Feb 145043
Feb 135043
Feb 1249.545.5
Feb 115044
Feb 1049.543.5
Feb 0949.543.5
Feb 084944
Feb 074944
Feb 064944
Feb 055046
Feb 045045
Feb 035045
Feb 025045
Feb 015044
Jan 315044
Jan 305044
Jan 295044
Jan 285044
Jan 275045
Jan 265045
Jan 255045
Jan 245046
Jan 235046
Jan 235046
Jan 225044
Jan 2150.545
Jan 2050.545
Jan 1950.545
Jan 184846
Jan 174846
Jan 164846
Jan 154846
Jan 144846
Jan 134846
Jan 124846
Jan 114846

80 days until Election day

The

BBC poll of polls

looks at the

individual national polls

from the last 14 days and creates

trend lines

using the median value, i.e. the value in the middle of the set of numbers.

See individual polls

Presentational white space

By contrast, in 2016 the polls were far less clear and just a couple of percentage points separated Mr Trump and his then-rival Hillary Clinton at several points as election day neared.

Section divider

Which states will decide this election?

As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.

Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.

Map showing where the battleground states are in the 2020 election. Texas has the largest number of electoral college votes (38) while New Hampshire has the fewest (4)
Presentational white space

In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.

As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.

Section divider

Who’s leading in the battleground states?

At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Joe Biden, but there’s a long way to go and things can change very quickly, especially when Donald Trump’s involved.

The polls suggest Mr Biden is ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – three industrial states his Republican rival won by margins of less than 1% to clinch victory in 2016.

Latest polling averages in battleground states

Click a column header to sort the table by that column in ascending or descending order
Arizona48.8%44.3%Trump by 3.6%
Florida48.2%47.0%Trump by 1.2%
Georgia45.0%46.3%Trump by 5.2%
Iowa45.0%46.7%Trump by 9.5%
Michigan47.8%43.6%Trump by 0.2%
Minnesota49.7%43.3%Clinton by 1.5%
Nevada46.5%40.5%Clinton by 2.4%
New Hampshire49.7%41.7%Clinton by 0.4%
North Carolina48.0%47.2%Trump by 3.7%
Ohio46.7%44.3%Trump by 8.2%
Pennsylvania49.0%44.7%Trump by 0.7%
Texas43.8%47.3%Trump by 9.1%
Virginia51.5%39.0%Clinton by 5.4%
Wisconsin49.6%43.3%Trump by 0.8%

Source: Real Clear Politics, Associated Press. Last updated: 14 September

Presentational white space

But it’s the battleground states where Mr Trump won big in 2016 that his campaign team will be most worried about. His winning margin in Iowa, Ohio and Texas was between 8-10% back then but it’s looking much closer in all three at the moment.

Betting markets, however, are certainly not writing Mr Trump off just yet. The latest odds give him just less than a 50% chance of winning on 3 November, which suggests some people expect the outlook to change a lot over the next few weeks.

But political analysts are less convinced about his chances of re-election. FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis website, says Mr Biden is “favoured” to win the election, while The Economist says he is “likely” to beat Mr Trump.

Section divider

Has coronavirus affected Trump’s numbers?

The coronavirus pandemic has dominated headlines in the US since the start of the year and the response to President Trump’s actions has been split predictably along party lines.

Support for his approach peaked in mid-March after he declared a national emergency and made $50 billion available to states to stop the spread of the virus. At this point, 55% of Americans approved of his actions, according to data from Ipsos, a leading polling company.

But any support he had from Democrats disappeared after that, while Republicans continued to back their president.

By July, the data suggests his own supporters had begun to question his response – but there was a slight uptick at the end of August.

Chart showing that the majority of Americans do not approve of Donald Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to polls by Ipsos
Presentational white space

The virus is likely to be at the forefront of voters’ minds and one leading model produced by experts at the University of Washington predicts the death toll will have risen to about 260,000 people by election day.

Mr Trump may be hoping Operation Warp Speed, his administration’s vaccine initiative, can produce an “October surprise” – a last-minute event that turns the election upside down.

The chief scientific adviser to the initiative has said it’s “extremely unlikely but not impossible” that a vaccine could be ready to distribute before 3 November.

Section divider

Can we trust the polls?

It’s easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it’s not entirely true.

Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.

Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree – meaning Mr Trump’s advantage in some key battleground states wasn’t spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.

But this year there’s even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it’s having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism, especially this far out from election day.

SOURCE:BBC

Happy
Happy
0 %
Sad
Sad
0 %
Excited
Excited
0 %
Sleppy
Sleppy
0 %
Angry
Angry
0 %
Surprise
Surprise
0 %

Average Rating

5 Star
0%
4 Star
0%
3 Star
0%
2 Star
0%
1 Star
0%

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *