Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times last week he has prepared for an unlikely scenario: a US invasion of Canada. The risk, he said, is low and the chance remote. Yet Carney insisted he has a duty to consider all possibilities as the US-Canada relationship shifts under President Donald Trump.
“That’s just risk management,” Carney said.
Trump’s use of global tariffs and repeated remarks about making Canada the 51st state have prompted Canada to run war games simulating an American attack. The move reflects growing unease north of the border despite official reassurances.
In 2025, Trump told reporters it was “highly unlikely” the US would resort to force against Canada. Instead, he said, economic pressure would remain the primary tool to achieve political goals.
“President Trump has done more than anyone to protect the great people of Canada,” the White House said in a statement to the BBC this week.
Military voices familiar with North American defence cooperation largely dismiss the idea of a US invasion. Lt-Gen Christopher Coates, a former Royal Canadian Air Force officer with 34 years of service, told the BBC a war between the neighbours was “almost difficult to imagine.”
“I was involved in military operations for my whole career, and we never considered the possibility that there would be a military attack coming from US territory,” Coates said.
Coates pointed to the multiple layers of collaboration between the two countries. Both Canada and the US are members of NATO, which requires members to defend one another if attacked. They also work together on Arctic defence through the North American Aerospace Defence Command, or NORAD, and share intelligence regularly.
Because of this, Coates said any hostile move by the US would probably not begin with an armed assault but with less overt tactics such as cyberwarfare.
The possibility of conflict with the US weighs on some Canadians. A Leger poll released in January, following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, found that more than 30 percent of Canadians believed a US invasion was likely.
The scenario remains speculative. The long-standing partnership between the two countries runs deep. Still, the fact that Canada’s government has put war games against the US on the table reflects a recalibration of trust amid shifting politics.
Carney’s comments arrive as the Trump administration tightens tariffs on Canadian goods and pushes a nationalist agenda. The US president’s rhetoric about absorbing Canada into the United States has alarmed officials and citizens alike.
Military and political analysts say that while an invasion is improbable, the changing tone in Washington requires Canada to prepare for all outcomes. The cooperation that has defined US-Canada defence for decades faces new questions in a time of escalating economic and political tension.
Canada’s response is cautious. The war games are a signal that officials are watching closely and ready to respond, even if the prospect remains remote.
The scenario may be unlikely, but it is no longer unthinkable.
According to Joy Online.
