A major new study published in the journal Nature has found that climate change is redrawing the malaria map across Africa, making the disease worse in cooler regions like southern and East Africa, while pushing it toward elimination in some of today's hottest malaria hotspots, including much of West Africa and the Sahel. The study, led by Colin J. Carlson and his team, analyzed over 50,000 medical surveys spanning 116 years to measure the impact of human-caused climate change on malaria's spread.
Malaria's Shifting Tides
The researchers found that malaria is spread by mosquitoes, which are sensitive to temperature. The disease spreads best around 25°C (77°F) and becomes far less likely once temperatures drop below about 16°C (61°F) or rise above about 34°C (93°F). This means a warming climate doesn't just make malaria "worse everywhere," it pushes some places into the mosquito's ideal zone, and pushes other places out of it entirely.
The study's lead author, Tamma Carleton, said, "Climate change isn't just making malaria worse or better, it's moving it. Whether a place sees elevated malaria risks or reduced burdens under climate change depends on how hot it is today." We see relief in the current hotspots and new risk nearly everywhere else.
The Data, Country by Country
The study includes detailed country-level projections of how malaria prevalence has changed already, and how it's projected to change by 2050 and by 2100. Ghana's numbers put it firmly among the countries expected to benefit from rising heat. Climate change has already reduced malaria prevalence in Ghana by an estimated 4.94 cases per 1,000 children compared to a world without human-caused warming.
Here's a breakdown of the projected changes in childhood malaria prevalence (cases per 1,000 children) for selected countries:
| Country | Historical impact | Projected by 2050 | Projected by 2100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana | -4.94 | -7.85 | -15.12 |
| Nigeria | -3.53 | -6.26 | -14.14 |
| Burkina Faso | -7.04 | -9.68 | -20.71 |
| Mali | -7.8 | -10.29 | -23.55 |
| Niger | -8.69 | -9.97 | -23.62 |
| Mauritania | -8.06 | -10.37 | -23.5 |
| South Africa | +10.79 | +9.96 | +17.78 |
Countries Projected to Be Hit Hardest
South Africa faces the largest projected increase of any country in the study, at 17.78 additional cases per 1,000 children by 2100, followed by Rwanda (+16.11), Swaziland (+12.72), and Burundi (+10.56). These are largely cooler, higher-altitude, or more southerly countries where malaria has historically been less established, meaning health systems there may be less experienced at fighting it.
A Second Report Adds a Warning
A separate Climate Impact Lab report from March 2026 adds an important caution to this story. The report, Adaptation Roadmap: Human Health, found that climate-driven temperature changes can still be deadly, even where malaria falls. The researchers warn that heat stress remains a significant threat, particularly in regions where temperatures are rising rapidly.
As the world grapples with the implications of climate change on malaria, it's essential to remember that the impact of climate change is a modest factor next to the impact of malaria control efforts. Bed nets, treatment access, vaccines, and vector control have historically reduced malaria far more than climate change has increased or decreased it.
Source: Joy Online
