The International Monetary Fund has warned that rising food prices driven by a possible “super” El Niño and conflict in the Middle East threaten the food security of millions worldwide. These two forces are putting renewed pressure on low-income households, forcing governments to make difficult policy decisions.
El Niño is a weather pattern caused by warming of the Pacific Ocean that changes rainfall across many regions. The last major El Niño event in 2015-16 disrupted food supplies for about 60 million people. The IMF pointed out that the 2022 food price spikes, triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine, pushed roughly 71 million people into poverty within just three months.
Now, with forecasts suggesting a stronger El Niño could be developing, vulnerable agricultural areas face serious risks. At the same time, the ongoing war in the Middle East threatens fertilizer and energy supplies. Earlier this year, fertilizer prices jumped nearly 50 percent during the planting season in many countries. Although prices have since steadied, farmers still face higher costs that will affect crop yields, incomes, and food prices during the current harvest.
The IMF said rising food prices create immediate pressure on governments. In many places, families spend more than half their income on food. This makes affordability a major socio-economic issue with effects on income inequality and public health.
Governments often respond with subsidies, direct food distribution, or vouchers. But the wrong choice can waste resources and fail to help those most in need. The IMF advises that price subsidies should be temporary, transparent, and tightly controlled. They warn subsidies often benefit wealthier households more since they consume more food and are less sensitive to price changes.
Food vouchers can target aid better if governments have the administrative capacity to identify vulnerable people through social registries and digital payments. But vouchers or subsidies won’t work if there isn’t enough food to buy. Supply chains and distribution can break down due to conflict or natural disasters, further disrupting markets.
The IMF’s new publication guides governments to assess four factors when deciding on food assistance: availability of food, affordability, how markets are functioning, and administrative capacity. Many governments rush to act quickly in crises, bypassing careful policy design. This can leave expensive, poorly targeted programs in place longer than necessary.
One example is the 2015-16 El Niño in Vietnam, which severely reduced rice production due to drought. This shows how weather shocks can sharply cut food supply and drive prices up.
The war in Ukraine and now the Middle East conflict have added layers to global food insecurity. Fertilizer price spikes during planting seasons increase production costs, affecting harvests and raising prices later. Millions of people in poor households face growing risks as governments try to balance urgent aid with long-term solutions.
The IMF’s warning comes as many countries struggle to keep food affordable amid rising global shocks. The challenge is how to protect vulnerable populations without creating costly, inefficient programs that strain public budgets.
Food security has become a pressing issue not just in remote farming regions but across low-income urban areas where families spend a large share of their income on food. The choices governments make now could determine whether vulnerable populations survive the next wave of shocks or fall deeper into poverty.
According to 3News.
